Holistic Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Modern Production Systems
From BioMASS Laboratory Wiki
Executive Summary
The business of modern agricultural systems is complex; significant costs for seeding, irrigation, drainage, herbicides, fertilizers, and other inputs combined with commodity price fluctuations and Mother Nature mean slim margins in the best of times, disaster in the worst of times, and complex interactions always. For example, in a commodity-dominated market, often the impulse is to out produce the competition in order to increase profits. However, an aggregate increase in production reduces the value of the commodity by increasing supply. Interplay with seasonal weather patterns and input prices also significantly affect profit. As a result, net profits may actually decrease despite a bumper crop. Additionally, new limiting factors are acting upon farming systems making it more difficult to return a profit. For instance, large-scale mechanization has reduced the manpower required to manage modern production systems, allowing individual producers to manage larger tracks of land. The economies of scale have in turn greatly reduced production costs, making it difficult to compete at the smaller scales. At the same time, land values are increasing, encouraging absentee ownership. This concomitantly promotes cash rents as opposed to the customary crop sharing arrangements for tenant managers, eroding trust and community values. To make matters worse, energy prices are expected to continue increasing. It is becoming progressively more challenging to encourage the next generation to adopt the agricultural lifestyle, suggesting that the resulting quality of life is not commensurate with the investment and risk in volved. Finally, many have raised concerns about the environmental impacts of modern production operations, but reducing these impacts while addressing the economic and social aspects of farming seems a difficult goal.
Initial funding from the DSynergy Program will be used to develop a preliminary model based on the existing cattle-corn rotation on the Dudley Smith Farm. From a systems perspective, this is a good candidate for several reasons. Firstly, by rotating cattle onto the lands diversity is introduced into the system. System diversity is likely to be beneficial to overall system stability by offering more opportunities for productivity, a benefit to the producer. In short the producer will have more options in the event of circumstances beyond their control. Profits can be assured more easily.
However, managing a complex system has its trade-offs. In the proposed system at the Dudley Smith Farm, soil compaction, and its effect on corn yields, may become an issue due to the size of the animals and their habit of seeking forage and water. It was observed at the Dudley Smith Farm that the animals have a tendency to congregate at the edge of the paddock where the electric fence had just been moved, seeking fresh forage. It was similarly observed that the animals might congregate near water sources. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the animals tend to walk the same path to and from various locations on the paddock. If such congregations and paths become regular events during the cattle rotation, soil compaction may become focused upon these areas. This may in turn affect crop yields during corn rotations.
In addition, to maintain productivity animal health is an equally important consideration. Their search for fresh forage may be an indicator of nutritional deficiencies that the producer may need to consider. Meanwhile, the minimization of supplemental forage can benefit the producer by creating opportunities in the grass-fed beef markets.
